Week 15 Expert Forecast: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, sitting at 7–6 and battling for control of a tight NFC South race, step back into the national limelight in Week 15 as they host the 4–9 Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football. Although Atlanta was officially eliminated from postseason contention in Week 14, the Falcons now enter the week with an entirely different motivation: the chance to derail Tampa Bay’s pursuit of a fifth straight divisional title. Spoiling a rival’s season can be powerful fuel, and Atlanta—despite its struggles—has shown flashes of being able to play that role effectively. (For information on how to watch, stream, and listen to the game, click here.)

As analysts turned their attention to this primetime matchup, a single theme repeatedly emerged: “rebound.” Many experts believe this game presents Tampa Bay with a golden opportunity to reset and recover after what one analyst described as a “weird and out-of-character” Week 14 loss to the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers’ offense sputtered in that outing, prompting several evaluators to predict that Week 15 could become a classic “get-right” performance for quarterback Baker Mayfield and the offense as a whole.

A major reason for that optimism lies in the expected return of several key players. Star receiver Mike Evans, rookie playmaker Jalen McMillan, and cornerstone left tackle Tristan Wirfs are all trending toward being active on Thursday night. Their presence could dramatically elevate the Buccaneers’ passing attack, which struggled without them. Still, some analysts questioned whether Atlanta—playing without playoff stakes—will show the necessary grit and intensity to push Tampa Bay. Mayfield strongly rejected any suggestion that the Falcons would coast, reminding reporters that division games almost always carry emotional weight.

Another expert highlighted what he believes will be Tampa Bay’s biggest defensive challenge: preventing explosive plays from Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson, one of the league’s most elusive young rushers, remains capable of flipping momentum with a single carry, and several analysts stressed that the Buccaneers must contain him to avoid unexpected trouble.

Oddsmakers currently list Tampa Bay as 4.5-point favorites, and the majority of national analysts align with that projection. Here’s how various major outlets see the matchup unfolding:

ESPN.com – Eight of the 11 ESPN experts have published selections, and all eight sided with the Buccaneers, signaling strong confidence in a Tampa Bay bounce-back.

CBSSports.com – Pete Prisco believes the “pirates” are in for a festive night, predicting that the Bucs will put on a show for their home crowd.

USA Today – Of the six analysts making picks against the spread, four are backing Tampa Bay.

Bleacher Report – Six of seven writers evaluating the game ATS still favor the Buccaneers, despite Tampa Bay’s uneven recent form.

Pro Football Talk – Mike Florio and Chris Simms not only agreed on a Buccaneers win, they landed on the exact same score.

Sports Illustrated – Among MMQB’s six contributors, only Connor Orr broke ranks by choosing the Falcons.

Sporting News – Vinnie Iyer expects the Buccaneers not only to win but to cover the spread with room to spare.

Bleacher Report analyst Moe Moton offered one of the more detailed breakdowns, pinpointing Tampa Bay’s specific advantages and projecting how they will play out:

“Tied with Carolina for first place in the NFC South, the Buccaneers will bring urgency and focus into this divisional game at home. Chris Godwin is seeing increased snaps as he works back from a fibula injury, and both Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan could return as well.

Even if one or both wideouts do not suit up, Tampa Bay should still win this NFC South showdown by a touchdown. I expect Bucky Irving to be a major factor, exploiting Atlanta’s 24th-ranked run defense.”

As Thursday night approaches, the stakes for Tampa Bay remain high. A win keeps them firmly in the hunt for another division crown. A loss, however, could open the door for a chaotic finish in a division that has remained unpredictable all season. For the Falcons, the opportunity to spoil a rival’s ambitions may be all the motivation they need.

Either way, Raymond James Stadium is set for a matchup that promises implications far beyond a single Thursday night.